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Scope Ratings Says Russian Economy Will Return To Pre-War Levels Only By 2030

Scope Ratings Says Russian Economy Will Return To Pre-War Levels Only By 2030
Russia's economy is unlikely to return to pre-war levels before the end of this decade, according to Scope Ratings, as the Ukraine war and stricter sanctions exacerbate long-standing economic deficiencies.
According to the credit rating agency's forecast, gross domestic product (GDP) will be about 8 per cent lower by the end of 2023 than it was in 2021.
According to the federal statistics service Rosstat, the Russian economy will grow by 4.7 per cent in 2021.
According to the agency, potential growth will fall to 1.0-1.5 per cent per year after 2023, down from 1.5-2.0 per cent before the war.
"The Russian government, helped by the Bank of Russia, has used windfall export revenues to mitigate the immediate domestic economic impact of the war in Ukraine and sanctions, but the longer-term outlook has worsened," said Scope analyst Levon Kameryan.
According to the report, accelerating capital outflows, limited access to Western technology, and negative demographic trends will continue to impede growth and compound the effects of the war and sanctions in the absence of significant economic restructuring.
According to the report, about four times as much private capital - $64.2 billion - flowed out of Russia in the first quarter of 2022 alone as in the same quarter last year.
According to the Scope report, the private sector will withdraw more capital from Russia this year than it did in 2014, when Russia annexed Crimea.

Christopher J. Mitchell

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