Business Essentials for Professionals


Matching Lowest Ever Quarterly Growth Reported By China For Q4, 2018

Matching Lowest Ever Quarterly Growth Reported By China For Q4, 2018
There has been a further slowdown in the Chinese economy in the quarter of last year and the growth rate of the economy has reached a level that was recorded to be the lowest seem during the global financial crisis of 2008-09.
According to data released Monday by the National Bureau of Statistics, the Chinese economy recorded a year on year growth rate of 6.4 per cent in the fourth quarter which is the same that was attained by the economy in the first quarter of 2009.
That rate of growth in 2009 was the lowest for China ever since the country had started making public quarterly growth rates starting at the beginning of 1992. The Chinese growth rate in the first quarter of 2009 was at the beginning of the global financial crisis that engulfed the entire world markets within a short period of time and the Western economies were the most hit.
The rate of growth in the last quarter of 2018 was lower than the 6.5 per cent achieved in the previous quarter and was in line with the predictions of 6.4 per cent according to survey of analysts by Bloomberg.
However, for the entire year of 20-18, the Chinese growth rate was 6.5 per cent which was in tune with the previously projected growth rate of the Chinese government of about “about 6.5 per cent” for the entire year. The 2018 rate of growth of the Chinese economy was however lower than the 6.8 per cent attainted by the country in 2017 and the lowest since 3.9 per cent reported in 1990.
It is being reported that the forecast growth rate for 2019 would be set between 6 and 6.5 per cent for 2019 because of the continuation of stumbling blocks such as those created by the Chinese government through its policies for reducing the debt and risky lending in the market and compounded by the possibility of the ongoing trade war with the United States. It is expected that the National People’s Congress would release these forecast growth rate in early March.
There are some other sets of data that were also not encouraging for China.
The year on year growth in retail sale for December was 8.2 per cent which was more than the 8.1 per cent reported for November but was also the lowest in the last 15 years since the sector reported growth rate of 4.3 per cent in May of 2003. However, the December retail sale growth rate was more than the market expectations of about 8.1 per cent. 
In the same period, the industrial production growth rate was at 5.7 per cent year on year which was more than the 5.4 per cent recorded in November – which was the lowest for the index since November 2008. However that rate for December was 0.54 per cent more month on month and was more than the market and analysts expected at 5.3 per cent, according to a Bloomberg survey.

Christopher J. Mitchell

Markets | Companies | M&A | Innovation | People | Management | Lifestyle | World | Misc