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Deliveries From Tesla Will Break Records But Fall Short Of Musk's Expectations

Deliveries From Tesla Will Break Records But Fall Short Of Musk's Expectations
Tesla is predicted to report another record-breaking quarter in EV sales, while it is probably going to fall short of the high internal target of 2 million vehicles annually that CEO Elon Musk announced at the start of the year.
In response to declining sales, Tesla cut the prices of its four car models worldwide in 2023, focusing especially on China, where the business has lost market share to local competitors like BYD. The company did this by leveraging its industry-leading profits.
However, automakers like Ford Motor (F.N) have retreated from their electrification plans due to the price war and declining demand for EVs. This has left Tesla as the clear leader in the US and helped its stock more than double this year.
"The fourth quarter is typically the strongest of the year in terms of deliveries for Tesla, we're expecting that to be the case again this year," said Garrett Nelson, senior analyst at CFRA Research.
According to 14 experts surveyed by LSEG, Tesla probably delivered 1.82 million cars worldwide in 2023—up 37% from 2022—with roughly 473,000 of those deliveries occurring in the fourth quarter. As early as Tuesday, the EV manufacturer is anticipated to release its quarterly production and delivery reports.
If "freaking force majeure" doesn't occur, Musk said in January that Tesla might ship two million units this year. However, he issued a warning in October about how rising borrowing prices were putting pressure on demand.
The company stated it wants to reach a 50% average annual growth rate over several years. The corporation made a year-end sales push by raising discounts on its core models.
The leading EV manufacturer in the market will have to deal with the loss of federal tax credits for some of its vehicles starting in 2024 in the US and Germany, where the government is early terminating its EV subsidy programme.
Although loan rates and battery ingredient costs are predicted to decline, this may need further price reductions in the upcoming year.
Daiwa Capital Markets analyst Jairam Nathan reduced his forecast for Tesla's deliveries in 2019 to 2.04 million from 2.14 million, citing a 4% drop in average revenue per vehicle starting in 2023.
The business is also coping with increased regulatory scrutiny in the US and certain European nations on its self-driving systems and other components. Tesla recalled almost all of its 2 million cars on American roads earlier this month in order to add additional safety measures.
Musk has stated in the past that he thinks the majority of Tesla's value may eventually come from full self-driving (FSD).
According to a Visible Alpha survey, analysts anticipate 2.2 million Tesla deliveries in 2019. The majority think that demand won't be increased by the recently announced Cybertruck and the updated Model 3.
"Tesla candidly admitted the company is now in an intermediate low-growth period," Deutsche Bank analyst Emmanuel Rosner wrote in a note, citing a meeting with Investor Relations Chief Martin Viecha.
Investors anticipate more pressure on Tesla's profits as the business ramps up Cybertruck production and gets ready to introduce a more affordable vehicle platform.
According to Musk, there will only be a small proportion of Cybertrucks among Tesla's vehicles in 2019 and the pickup's contentious design will face "enormous challenges" in reaching mass production.
In a research, RBC Capital Markets analyst Tom Narayan predicted that Cybertruck will account for 3% of Tesla's sales in 2024, characterising it more as a "halo" product that would draw customers to the company.

Christopher J. Mitchell

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