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December New Car Sale To Be Down 7% Y-O-Y, But Still The Highest Sale Month In 2017: Kelley Blue Book

December New Car Sale To Be Down 7% Y-O-Y, But Still The Highest Sale Month In 2017: Kelley Blue Book
According to an estimate of Kelley Blue Book, there would a year-over-year drop of 7 per cent in the sale of new vehicles in December 2017 to touch a total of 1.57 million units.
"December should be the biggest sales month of the year, and despite our expectations for significant year-over-year declines, the projected SAAR of 17.6 million would be the third highest of the year," said Tim Fleming, analyst for Kelley Blue Book. "It's also important to remember that December 2016 was the strongest month in nearly 15 years, fueled by heavy incentives and year-end sales objectives. We're still expecting a year-end sales push from many manufacturers, which will translate into incentives and discounting, but since the sales objectives should be reduced from last year's peak, we are projecting slower sales than last December."
The report says that there would be a drop of 7 per cent in the sale of new light-vehicles in December 2017 compared to December 2016 at 1,570,000 units, even though it would be up 13 percent compared to sale in November 2017.
Compared to December 2016, it is estimated that 17.6 million would be the seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) for December 2017 and the figure was 17.3 million in November 2017, the report said.
There is also an expected drop in the contribution of retail sale to the total sale which is estimated to be 82.4 percent of total volume in December 2017, in comparison to 82.8 percent that the figure accounted for in December 2016.
For the entire year of 2017, Kelley Blue Book anticipates that there would be a drop of 2 percent compared to last year with the expected figures coming in at 17.1 million. This despite the fact that there had been record sale in 2016 which was the seventh consecutive year of annual increases. Despite this, 2017 sale would be the fourth-largest sales total in history if the estimates are true.
For December 2017, there would be negative reporting of sale growth by all automakers, anticipates Kelley Blue Book. But with a market share gain of about 1 percent, one of the only companies to be somewhat happy about December sales would be Ford. There can be as much as 10 percent growth in the sale of Ford SUVs which have hit the headlines with the new Ford Expedition and Lincoln Navigators.
On the other hand, the largest potential looser would probably be Fiat Chrysler and is expected to lose the most volume year-over-year. the study estimates that the company would report a 12 percent decline. Part of the reason is the discontinuing of a number of models of the company that sold well last year and includes models like the Chrysler 200, Dodge Dart and Jeep Patriot. Fleet sale has also been intentionally brought down by Fiat Chrysler with a reduction of 25 per cent.

Christopher J. Mitchell

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