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Brexit's First Wave Will Affect 10,000 UK Finance Jobs: Reuters Survey

Brexit's First Wave Will Affect 10,000 UK Finance Jobs: Reuters Survey
According to a Reuters survey of firms employing the bulk of workers in international finance in Britain, if the UK is denied access to Europe’s single market, around 10,000 finance jobs will be shifted out of Britain or created overseas in the next few years.
The survey showed that with Paris a distant second, Frankfurt was by far the most popular destination for the new roles.
This is being claimed to be the first comprehensive public survey that included results from 123 firms, including the biggest banks, insurers, asset managers, private equity firms and exchanges in Britain, where the companies were asked about the specific details of their plans so far in case of a so-called “hard” Brexit.
Because of Brexit, which is due to take place in March 2019, nearly half of the companies surveyed said they would have to move staff or restructure their businesses. While another third said it would have no impact, the remainder said they were still deciding on their plans or declined to comment.
Answers from 39 companies employing at least 350,000 people formed the basis of the anticipated number of jobs to be moved or created overseas. Britain’s financial sector employs about 1.1 million people.
London will keep its place as the continent’s top finance centre, at least in the short term as the survey suggests that job losses from Brexit may be at the lower end of estimates by industry lobby groups and firms in the first wave of job losses, the survey findings suggest.
However, bigger moves could be in store in a decade or more, most respondents said\.
“If it is going to happen it won’t be in one big bang,” said a senior executive at one of Europe’s largest banks, which took part in the survey. “There will be a slow drain of jobs from London over a number of years.”
Hoping a soft Brexit can be negotiated in talks currently going on in Brussels, some financial institutions may be delaying decisions, the survey also suggests. By saying it’s important to start planning now, BoE Governor Mark Carney has specifically warned companies against that approach.
“They would like to think there is going to be a mutually easy way of dealing with financial services across the EU-UK border,” said Andrew Gray, global head of Brexit for financial services at PwC.
“So firms are finding it hard to land on precise plans.”
20 among the investment banks that earned the most fees from investment banking in Europe, the Middle East and Africa in 2016, according to Thomson Reuters’ data, were  included in the Reuters survey.
While some asked not to be named and for their data to be used only in aggregate, many participants gave only partial answers to the survey questions, however.
With the bulk of employees in the internationally focused financial sector, the number of workers employed by the 75 organisations who provided their staffing numbers added up to 484,578.
9,777 banking roles would be affected would be affected. The executives surveyed said that a period of duplication would result as many of those would be shifted out of the UK, but some would be new roles in Europe.
The survey showed that the asset management sector 311 need sot create roles while insurance companies said they planned to move or create about 98 jobs overseas.

Christopher J. Mitchell

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