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A Quarter Of Huawei Smartphones Could Vanish From Market Due To US Ban, Say Analysts

A Quarter Of Huawei Smartphones Could Vanish From Market Due To US Ban, Say Analysts
According to predictions by analysts, there is a possibility that about one fourth of the total number of smartphones of Chinese tech company Huawei would disappear from the international market because of the ban and restrictions imposed on it by the United States. 
According to Fubon Research and Strategy Analytics, in case of the US ban remaining in force, there could be a drop of anything between 4 per cent and 24 per cent in 2019 in the shipments of smartphones of Huawei which is the second-largest smartphone maker by volume in the world.
While refraining from giving out any hard estimates because of the uncertainty about the US ban, a number of experts however confirmed that they expect that over the next six months, there would be a slide in Huawei’s shipments.
Last week, Huawei was banned from purchasing US goods and technology by the US Commerce Department which is seen as an escalation of the ongoing trade war between the US and China. Huawei would not be able to purchase any US made product or services that possess 25% or more of U.S.-originated technology or materials.
US tech company Google and US Chip designer and maker ARM have already said that supply of updates and chip would be stopped for Huawei.
“Huawei may be wiped out of the Western European smartphone market next year if it loses access to Google,” said Linda Sui, director of wireless smartphone strategies at Strategy Analytics. There would by another decline of 23 per cent next year in the shipments of Huawei handset, she believes but also said that the sheer size of the China market would help the company to survive.
Fubon Research expects that Huawei would ship just 200 million in a worst-case scenario in 2019 even though the firm had earlier predicted total shipment of 258 million smartphones for the company in the same period.
According to industry tracker IDC, almost 30 per cent of the global market is commanded by Huawei and last year the company had shipped 208 million phones and 50 per cent of that was for Chinese market. Huawei considers Europe to its most important market for its premium smartphones.
Huawei has said it has been developing the technology it needs to be self-sufficient for years.
However experts are skeptical of the claims of the company. The crucial components and intellectual property that are necessary for manufacturing of smartphones of Huawei are only available with companies in the US, they said.
Stewart Randall, who tracks the chip industry at Shanghai-based consultancy Intralink, said that the ban would potentially force Huawei to cut down thousands of jobs and “disappear as a global player for some time.”
Analysts said that mid-end phones from its Chinese rivals OPPO and Vivo would be chosen by the potential buyers of Huawei’s phones.
“It leaves an amount of share in its wake that can get picked up by competitors, particularly Samsung given its strength in regions like Europe,” said Bryan Ma, who researches the global smartphone market at IDC.

Christopher J. Mitchell

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